Twitter roundup

From my Twitter feed (5/2-5/6) Brendan Nyhan May 6, 2011 at 7:50 PM
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	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan A new disciplinary motto! RT @paulwaldman1: Political science: Not wrong, but often boring http://bit.ly/jyptL0
	Political Science v. Journalism Andrew Gelman, a political scientist and statistician who writes at The Monkey Cage, has been in a bit of a spat with TNR's Jon Chait about the electibility of various Republicans, whether the a...
	May 6, 2011 at 6:50 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan OBL bubble over -- Obama re-election odds at @Intrade back to 60% (about where it was before killing) http://bit.ly/ejUgXP
	Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 is 60.1% probable THE Leading Prediction Market. Trade political futures and tap into the wisdom of crowds.
	May 6, 2011 at 12:33 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @sethmnookin: Wakefield goes all in, teams with 9/11 conspiracists for "The Masterplan" rally http://bit.ly/iLimyn
	The Masterplan Dublin | Sovereign Independent Events The Masterplan Dublin - Sovereign Independent The Sovereign Independent Presents The Masterplan Dublin Luke Rudkowski from WeAreChange Alan Watt from CuttingThroughTheMatrix exclusive video inte...
	May 5, 2011 at 3:16 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Wow, better than expected. MT @postpolls: "Birther" population sliced in half. Big jump in % saying president HI-born http://wapo.st/iDO3ap
	Poll: Number of ‘birthers’ plummets - Behind the Numbers - The Washington Post The number of “birthers” in the U.S. is sliced in half following the release of Barack Obama’s long-form birth certificate, according to a new Washington Post poll.
	May 5, 2011 at 3:14 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan No, it's clean; conducted 4/28-5/1 http://j.mp/k474NH RT @bshor: Is birther change partly a result of OBL's death?
	Washington Post Poll (washingtonpost.com) This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone April 28 – May 1, 2011, among a random national sample of 1,006 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results...
	May 5, 2011 at 3:45 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @ChrisMooney_: What is Motivated Reasoning? How Does It Work? Dan Kahan Answers http://t.co/bZHrwgZ
	What is Motivated Reasoning? How Does It Work? Dan Kahan Answers | The Intersection | Discover Magazine Guest Posts | I recently came across this post at Science & Religion Today, authored by Dan Kahan, who is the Elizabeth K. Dollard Professor at Yale Law School. It clarif
	May 5, 2011 at 1:11 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Great @conor64 deconstruction of "Rush Limbaugh's Strategically Ambiguous Monologues" http://j.mp/jqOgu0
	Rush Limbaugh's Strategically Ambiguous Monologues - Conor Friedersdorf - Politics - The Atlantic Was the talk radio host being earnest or sarcastic when he praised the president for killing bin Laden? Neither answer is correct.
	May 4, 2011 at 4:33 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan The upside of chart junk? Infographics improved long-term recall in experimental study RT @markmadsen http://bit.ly/9mayx4 (via @drewconway)
	Interaction Lab | Useful Junk? The Effects of Visual Embellishment on Comprehension and Memorability of Charts Guidelines for designing information charts often state that the presentation should reduce ‗chart junk' - visual embellishments that are not essential to understanding the data. In contrast, so...
	May 4, 2011 at 3:33 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan New psych research on how motivation can shape interpretation of scientific evidence http://j.mp/lWZh9c (via @WSJIdeasMarket)
	Sign In This item requires a subscription to Psychological Science. To view this item, select one of the options below: Already an individual subscriber? If so, please sign in to SAGE Journals Online wi...
	May 4, 2011 at 2:00 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Annals of confused poll interpretation - @EricBoehlert fails to grasp pre-/post-OBL comparison of Obama approval http://j.mp/iXqNQ0
	The Daily Beast's Confused Obama Poll | Media Matters for America : The Daily Beast poll did in fact compare Obama approval rating results from before and after the news of Osama bin Laden's death was announced. And the Daily Beast poll broke out those results...
	May 4, 2011 at 1:45 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Quoted by @gop12 in The Hill on effect of OBL killing on GOP debate (summary: not much) http://j.mp/jAtg6b
	Bin Laden looms over GOP's first presidential primary debate could have turned into a Republican victory if it had failed. When Republican presidential hopefuls gather in South Carolina for Thursday night’s debate, it will be the Middle East, and not the ...
	May 4, 2011 at 1:41 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@jbplainblog on how selection bias can lead to overestimates of rally effects http://j.mp/m2PH3b
	A plain blog about politics: About That POS Rally Table Not all foreign policy episodes produce a “rally round the flag effect,” and most of those effects are far smaller than one would believe from a Public Opinion Strategies table that everyone was...
	May 4, 2011 at 1:38 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan +11 but see caveat RT @MysteryPollster: New CBS/NYT poll, nyti.ms/kcbI0f, is a panel-back, reinterview of respondents first called 4/28-5/1
	May 4, 2011 at 12:11 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Still early, but 2012 triumphalism clearly wrong MT @MysteryPollster Summary of overnight polls on Obama, OBL, terrorism http://t.co/ofgL4w8
	Obama Approval Ratings Jump On Terrorism, Afghanistan WASHINGTON -- A handful of new national polls conducted in the immediate aftermath of Osama bin Laden's death reveal happiness and relief combined with improving perceptions of President Barack ...
	May 4, 2011 at 1:03 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan New MD survey: "Vaccine safety talks can burn up valuable checkup time"; 80% have 1+ refusal/month, 89% 1+ delays/month http://j.mp/jyd0UM
	amednews: Vaccine safety talks can burn up valuable checkup time :: May 2, 2011 ... American Medical News Half of doctors spend nearly 20 minutes discussing concerns with some parents, despite studies rejecting links between autism and immunization.
	May 4, 2011 at 1:10 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Megan McArdle traces the genesis of the fake MLK quote that's circulated so widely since OBL's killing http://j.mp/l1lnjU
	Anatomy of a Fake Quotation - Megan McArdle - National - The Atlantic How millions of people fell for a line that was attributed to Martin Luther King but really came from a middle school teacher
	May 3, 2011 at 6:39 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @smotus: Anyone know how to pick a good municipal clerk/recorder or auditor? http://j.mp/mEraKf #toomanyelections
	Enik Rising: Too many elections It's Election Day in Denver! I just voted for mayor and two city council offices.* But what's really important is that I had a chance to vote for the city clerk and recorder's office. Whoever wi...
	May 3, 2011 at 6:31 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Estimated nine-point bounce RT @postpolls: Osama bin Laden killing gives Obama quick but limited ratings boost http://j.mp/jSsf2n
	Osama bin Laden killing gives Obama quick but limited ratings boost The president gets broad credit for the targeted killing of Osama bin Laden and a quick bump in his approval rating. But he still gets negative marks on the economy.
	May 3, 2011 at 4:11 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jbouie: Politico engages in the Beltway tradition of bashing Congress for the crime of taking democracy seriously: http://cl.ly/6Qkg
	Politics as Usual By | Posted 05/03/2011 at 11:23 AM Politico bemoans the post-bin Laden "politics as usual" atmosphere on Capitol Hill: Capitol Hill was awash in unity Monday in the immediate aftermath of Osama ...
	May 3, 2011 at 3:43 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan New paper: "The Effect of Local Weather on Americans’ Perceptions about Global Warming" http://j.mp/lnrZI8 (PDF)
	http://politics.as.nyu.edu/doc s/IO/4819/egan_mullin_mar2011. pdf
	May 3, 2011 at 1:55 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@jackshafer on Bloomberg: "he would be a fool *not* to run in 2012 as an independent" http://j.mp/kieK8E I'll agree if we remove "not"
	Michael Kinsley's first Bloomberg View column: What it should say. My friend and former boss Michael Kinsley has packed his smartphone and khakis and is leaving Politico for a job at Bloomberg View, Bloomberg LP's soon-to-be-launched editorial and opinion website.
	May 3, 2011 at 11:33 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @HickmanPolls: Gallup backgrounder on rally effects: http://pollingmatters.gallup.com/
	Gallup.Com - Polling Matters by Frank Newport Tonight’s GOP debate in South Carolina features five possible presidential candidates, four of whom are known to less than half of Republicans nationwide. As such, one much-sought-after outcome ...
	May 2, 2011 at 8:02 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @nickconfessore: Hamilton College class analyzes accuracy of pundit predictions. Krugman tops, Cal Thomas bottoms. Full release @ 4:15PM http://bit.ly/mgy407
	Claim: Krugman is top prognosticator; Cal Thomas is the worst | Poynter. A Hamilton College class and their public policy professor analyzed the predicts of 26 pundits — including Sunday morning TV talkers — and used a scale of 1 to 5 to rate their accuracy. After , ...
	May 2, 2011 at 8:02 PM

Comments

[Rob]

I defy anybody to read the Rush Limbaugh monologue that Conor Friedersdorf thinks is "strategically ambiguous" (Brendan says Friedersdorf's analysis is "great") and find any ambiguity whatsoever. Limbaugh's sarcasm and ridicule of Obama's Obama-centric narrative of the OBL mission couldn't be more pointed, more obvious, more unambiguous.

The real fun this week, other than celebrating the success of the mission, was the White House's insistence that the rattrap OBL was living in was a "mansion." Now we understand why they gave the kill order on OBL: he wasn't paying his fair share.

[David in Cal]

Somehow Rush Limbaugh affects liberals' thinking. IMHO their reaction is akin to CDS (Clinton Derangement Syndrome) -- the effect Bill Clinton had on conservatives.

I agree with Rob that Limbaugh's praise of Obama was obviously sarcastic. Perhaps there was some ambiguity, because comments in the monologue that were not about Obama were mostly straight. However, even if this monologue was incoherent, Friedersdorf went much too far. Based on (at most) one example, Friedersdorf generalized to Limbaugh's supposedly routine practice of strategic ambiguity.

One Friedersdorf comment was obviously wrong:

This failure to articulate and defend a single coherent position is the tactic of an intellectual coward.

Limbaugh's show has many flaws, but not this one. Limbaugh routinely articulates and strongly defends many coherent positions: opposition to big government, belief in American exceptionalism, dislike of liberals' positions on most issues, dislike of affirmative action, opposition to what he sees as liberal media bias, opposition to Feminism, disdain for what the NAACP has become, etc.

If a political scientist drew a general conclusion based on a single example, Brendan would consider his analysis to be flawed. If an analysis included an incorrect statement Brendan would normally point out its falsity. However, when a flawed analysis yields a negative conclusion about Rush Limbaugh, Brendan finds it "great".

[daniel rotter]

Like Limbaugh would have any problem at all with an "Obama-centric narrative" of the OBL mission if Obama was a conservative Republican. I've seen RNC chairmen less partisan than Limbaugh.

[Fred A Milton]

Daniel, if you wish to see a fair comparison of the self-centricism of two outwardly similar narratives, read Obama's OBL kill statement, and then read Bush's 2003 statement announcing the capture of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed in Rawalpindi, Pakistan.

The difference in self-referencing is, well, please judge for yourself.

No doubt that Limbaugh is partisan to the point of blindness, but so too are the legions of pundits who can't perceive even one decent thing about GWB.

[Fred A Milton]

Hello Brendan,

Did you read the pdf full report attached to your "Hamilton College class analyzes accuracy of pundit predictions" tweet?

Did I somehow overlooked the actual, specific predictions on which the students were grading the pundits?

Are the specific pundit/prediction data there?

[bnyhan]

Haven't looked; just thought it sounded interesting.