 Twitter roundup (5/24-5/31)May 31, 2011 at 11:49 AM | |
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 | Don't want to pick on undergrad but post hoc perceptions of who smiled more are not a good way to understand elections http://j.mp/linMEm |
| RealClearPolitics - Articles - Print Article We can predict the answer to that question more than the chorus of political analysts might let on. If the outcomes of the last dozen presidential contests are any indication, the answer lies in... | |
| May 31, 2011 at 11:39 AM | |
| Education won't fix motivated reasoning RT @ChrisMooney_: Education, Biased Reasoning, and Enlightenment http://t.co/uloI2B2 |
 Education, Biased Reasoning, and Enlightenment | The Intersection | Discover Magazine In the last thread about my upcoming show with Michael Shermer, Sean McCorkle asks a really deep question, or set of questions. Let's take them in sequence: What about science education at an ag... | |
| May 30, 2011 at 4:51 PM | |
| Appears to be huge overestimate. RT @gallupnews: U.S. Adults Estimate That 25% of Americans Are Gay or Lesbian http://bit.ly/iRkpxb |
| http://bit.ly/iRkpxb Americans, on average, estimate that 25% of Americans are gay or lesbian, up from an estimate of 21% to 22% in 2002. Lower-income Americans, the least educated, women, and young people give the ... | |
| May 30, 2011 at 1:57 PM | |
| RT @bpump: Today marks the 17th time since 2007 and the second time this month that Gail Collins has mentioned Mitt Romney's dog: http://j.mp/kqMIM7 |
 Rick Perry, the Coyote Candidate - NYTimes.com In this week’s session of the presidential primary book club, we’re discussing Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. | |
| May 29, 2011 at 2:16 AM | |
| I missed it! 17! Thanks to Barry... RT @bpump: That previous tweet was only because I noticed @BrendanNyhan hadn't pointed it out yet. |
| May 29, 2011 at 2:17 AM | |
| RT @jayrosen_nyu: http://t.co/qD5PXoy He said, she said. We know nothing about who's right. We're the press. |
 Elizabeth Warren Is Smeared, and the Press Is Along for the Ride : CJR McHenry controversy shows the media copping out with he said-she said stories You'd think the press could resist the he said-she said copy when the truth is easy to discern. Congressman Patrick ... | |
| May 29, 2011 at 12:35 AM | |
| Thoughtful @smotus post on party agendas, responsibility, and punishment -- worth thinking about http://j.mp/j1RLfn |
| http://j.mp/j1RLfn History seems to be repeating itself. In 2008, Democrats were elected by wide margins nationally after running on a platform emphasizing health care reform and fixing the economy. So once they w... | |
| May 27, 2011 at 12:29 PM | |
| Been wondering about this. RT @MysteryPollster: Overlooked? My report: @markos & Research 2000 settle lawsuit huff.to/lcPoVr |
| May 27, 2011 at 12:22 PM | |
| John Sides of @monkeycageblog with more from our article re: how poli sci can help journalists http://j.mp/mAyqmq (cc: @conor64 @dbernstein) |
| How Political Science Can Help Journalists (and Still Let Them Be Journalists) — The Monkey Cage This is a long post, and I realize that I've beat this topic nearly to death, but stick with me. Following on James Fallows' post about the recent attention to Donald Trump's potential candidacy... | |
| May 27, 2011 at 10:51 AM | |
| Great title: "You probably think this paper's about you: Narcissists' perceptions of their personality and reputation" http://j.mp/k5FAUM |
| PsycNET - Display Record You probably think this paper's about you: Narcissists' perceptions of their personality and reputation. Carlson, Erika N.; Vazire, Simine; Oltmanns, Thomas F. | |
| May 26, 2011 at 8:37 PM | |
| .@sethmnookin on new CDC report: Measles infections on the rise in the US, almost all among unvaccinated http://j.mp/mGwXNT |
 The financial implications of the US measles outbreaks | The Panic Virus Earlier today, the CDC released a report about the measles outbreaks that have been occurring across the country since the beginning of the year. (Hat tip to USA Today‘s Liz Szabo for this story.) | |
| May 26, 2011 at 3:45 PM | |
| Provocative @jackshafer: "Reasonableness exists primarily to marginalize the views of others" http://j.mp/lqqy6r |
 Bloomberg View, the editorial page and op-ed section that gives reasonableness a bad name. Do I have so many friends and acquaintances working on Bloomberg View-which launched yesterday-that it would just be wrong for me to drop a cluster bomb or two on them today? The site-which apes... | |
| May 26, 2011 at 3:42 PM | |
| Hmm, hard to say what's result of OBL RT @fivethirtyeight Some declared OBL bounce dead when Gallup tracked down to 46%, but back to 53% now |
| May 25, 2011 at 5:32 PM | |
| Have to assume OBL only factor, but data are persuasive http://j.mp/kvxt6o MT @fivethirtyeight Not that hard; ~44% pre-OBL, ~50% since. |
 National Job Approval: Pres. Barack Obama Pres. Barack Obama's Job Approval is also available for all Adults, and by party preference among Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Pollster.com's charts are best viewed with Adobe Flash... | |
| May 25, 2011 at 7:34 PM | |
| @fivethirtyeight Remember, though, Obama was in mid to high 40s in March; might have been below equilibrium in the immediate pre-OBL period. |
| May 25, 2011 at 7:38 PM | |
| RT @jayrosen_nyu: Scholarly study on he said, she said journalism and "death panels" says the press should just refuse to quote false claims http://jr.ly/ab7a |
| May 25, 2011 at 1:49 PM | |
| I hate supposed "fact checks" like AP's "Netanyahu speech ignores rival claims" http://j.mp/jUUm03 Speeches tend to "ignore rival claims" |
 The Associated Press: FACT CHECK: Netanyahu speech ignores rival claims FACT CHECK: Netanyahu speech ignores rival claims JERUSALEM (AP) - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gave an impassioned defense of his approach to peace during a speech to Congress on T... | |
| May 25, 2011 at 12:57 PM | |
| Don't agree w/@ggreenwald, but enjoy his contrast between Brooks's praise for UK political class & his populist posturing http://j.mp/lDvWPk |
 Glenn Greenwald: David Brooks' political dream David Brooks flew to London so now he's an expert on British politics, and in his New York Times column this morning, he explains why "the British political system is basically functional while ... | |
| May 24, 2011 at 3:54 PM | |
| Column today: http://j.mp/iAJ8qZ My '08 post on him saying Obama couldn't fit in at non-existent Applebee's salad bar: http://j.mp/mtWaUO |
 Britain Is Working In 1920, Winston Churchill's mother held a dinner for M. Paul Cambon to celebrate the end of his 20 years as the French ambassador to Britain. One of the guests asked Cambon what he had seen in ... | |
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| May 24, 2011 at 3:57 PM | |
| Honorary political scientist @mattyglesias educates D. Brooks on how US/UK political differences driven by institutions http://j.mp/ifok94 |
| Yglesias » The US and UK Have Very Different Political Institutions May 24th, 2011 at 12:00 pm I completely agree with David Brooks that there's something admirable about the operation of British political institutions: It's just that the system worked. Each par... | |
| May 25, 2011 at 1:00 PM | |
« New column: Where are the Obama scandals? | Main | Does legislative gridlock cause scandal? »
May 31, 2011
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About Me
I am the James O. Freedman Presidential Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth College. I received my Ph.D. from the Department of Political Science at Duke University and have served as a RWJ Scholar in Health Policy Research and a faculty member in the Ford School of Public Policy at the University of Michigan. I also tweet at @BrendanNyhan, contribute to The Upshot at The New York Times, and am a co-organizer of Bright Line Watch. Previously, I served as a media critic for Columbia Journalism Review, co-edited Spinsanity, a non-partisan watchdog of political spin, and co-authored All the President's Spin. For more, see my Dartmouth website.
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Although Chris Mooney warns about the perils of biased reasoning in contentious political issues like global warming, he himself isn't immune. In a blog post, Mooney discusses the upcoming release of some emails and other documents from climate researcher Michael Mann. Mooney predicts that conservative climate skeptics will find wrongdoing in the e-mails, but says he will disbelieve their findings of wrongdoing. Mooney's prejudgment of Mann's e-mails shows his bias.
Posted by: David in Cal | June 01, 2011 at 07:57 PM
"...but says he will disbelieve their findings of wrongdoing."
No, that's not exactly what Mooney wrote. Here's what he actually DID write from the linked blog post (the emphasis, to specifically counteract David's charge against Mooney, is mine): "Will any of the charges be valid? I DON'T KNOW, although I seriously doubt it."
Posted by: daniel rotter | June 02, 2011 at 02:26 AM
daniel, you have a bit of a point, but I think Mooney's comment in context justifies what I wrote. Although Mooney acknowledges a scant possibility that some charge against Mann might be valid, he does not acknowledge any possibility that the people he criticizes will evaluate the e-mails fairly.
Mooney's pre-judgment, in his own words, is that regardless of what's in the e-mails, the people he criticizes:
-- will treat them as a scandal
-- will find wrongdoing in them
-- will find politics
-- will find closed-mindedness and bias.
-- And who knows what else.
-- It will all be made to look bad.
-- Things will be taken out of context and used selectively.
Here's the whole quote:
So does anyone think that that, whatever these documents say, they are not going to be treated as a scandal by those who went searching for them?
Confirmation bias tells us what will happen. Those who went seeking went in with a theory--that wrongdoing has been done. They all believe "ClimateGate," shown by multiple investigations to be a fake scandal, was actually a real one. So that is their premise.
They will therefore read whatever emails they receive and find wrongdoing in them. They will find politics. They will find closed-mindedness and bias. And who knows what else they will find--but it will all be made to look bad.
Will any of the charges be valid? I don't know, although I seriously doubt it. One thing we can be sure of, though, is that things will be taken out of context and used selectively.
Shorter version: Criticizing people for things that you expect them to do, but which they haven't done, shows bias.
Posted by: David in Cal | June 02, 2011 at 11:05 AM
Incidentally, Mooney made a misleading statement:
They all believe "ClimateGate," shown by multiple investigations to be a fake scandal, was actually a real one.
In fact, these investigations found a number of serious misdeeds. E.g., personnel at the University of East Anglia escaped criminal prosecution only because the statute of limitations had run out:
The university at the centre of the climate change row over stolen e-mails broke the law by refusing to hand over its raw data for public scrutiny.
The University of East Anglia breached the Freedom of Information Act by refusing to comply with requests for data concerning claims by its scientists that man-made emissions were causing global warming.
The Information Commissioner’s Office decided that UEA failed in its duties under the Act but said that it could not prosecute those involved because the complaint was made too late...
It's true that law-breaking at the University was not turned into a full-blown scandal. However, a finding that they committed illegal acts hardly amounts to an exoneration.
Posted by: David in Cal | June 02, 2011 at 05:52 PM