Brendan Nyhan

Historical context on presidential "flakes"

On "Fox News Sunday," Chris Wallace asked Michele Bachmann "Are you a flake?," prompting a backlash that forced Wallace to apologize:

Some commentators have suggested that Wallace's question was sexist. I agree that "flake" is a pejorative term that seems to be disproportionately applied to women, but it's worth noting that in presidential politics the term has mostly been directed at men.*

Most famously, former California governor and presidential candidate Jerry Brown was labeled as a "flake" throughout his political career and even asked the same question Bachmann. According to a February 21, 1989 column by Charles Paul Freund in the Washington Post, Brown was once asked "Are you a flake?" on MacNeil/Lehrer. A quick Nexis search shows that many other presidential candidates have been derided as flakes, including Texas businessman Ross Perot, former Floria governor Bob Graham, Ohio congressman Dennis Kucinich, Republican gadfly Alan Keyes, magazine publisher Steve Forbes, and former Illinois senator Carol Moseley-Braun. In terms of presidential candidates, the term is typically used to either mean personally eccentric (Graham, Perot) or a non-serious candidate who is unlikely to win (Forbes, Moseley-Braun) and/or has fringe/extreme views (Kucinich, Keyes).

Ultimately, however, the most important problem with Wallace's question is not the gender politics, but the journalism. As Conor Friedersdorf argued, if Wallace wants to press Bachmann on whether she's a "serious person" or someone who makes "questionable statements," his question did a terrible job of forcing her to engage on specifics. Instead, it allowed her to reiterate her credentials without addressing her long record of false and misleading statements.

* Of course, until recently, almost all presidential candidates were men. It remains to be seen how this pattern will change as more women become serious contenders.

Twitter roundup

From my Twitter feed (6/20-6/27) Brendan Nyhan Jun 27, 2011 at 2:38 PM
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	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Highly recommended RT @monkeycageblog: Political Science and Gay Marriage in New York http://t.co/2RDQZ2s
	Political Science and Gay Marriage in New York — The Monkey Cage A Monkey Cage reader, Jeff, emailed me and wrote: I'll speak to this by drawing on the New York State Senate's decision to legalize gay marriage. I look at the politics of gay marriage and see a...
	Jun 27, 2011 at 2:34 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RE: Bachmann Q - "flake" is probably gendered, but worth noting that Jerry Brown, who had a similar profile, was called a "flake" for years.
	Jun 27, 2011 at 2:31 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @ChrisMooney_: “A Little Knowledge”: Why The Biggest Problem With Climate “Skeptics” May Be Their Confidence http://t.co/ScVVrj5
	Chris Mooney | “A Little Knowledge”: Why The Biggest Problem With Climate “Skeptics” May Be Their Confidence Last week, an intriguing study emerged from Dan Kahan and his colleagues at Yale and elsewhere--finding that knowing more about science, and being better at mathematical reasoning, was related t...
	Jun 27, 2011 at 2:22 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Cool graphs MT @MysteryPollster: New nat'l HuffPost Pollster GOP charts with Palin http://t.co/rAmeBrY & without http://t.co/4chEVlR
	http://t.co/rAmeBrY
	http://t.co/4chEVlR
	Jun 26, 2011 at 6:44 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @mattyglesias: If NY Sen had a 60 vote supermajority rule and marriage equality failed, would people now be castigating Gov Cuomo's weak leadership?
	Jun 25, 2011 at 11:58 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@mattyglesias on misleading WH graph of # of Iraq/Afgh. troops http://j.mp/kmGoEQ Reminds me of classic Bush junk chart: http://j.mp/kYD4wc
	Filling In The Missing Data Points On The White House’s Afghanistan/Iraq Troop Level Charts Earlier this week, ThinkProgress produced a graph illustrating the fact that Obama’s “withdrawal” plan from Afghanistan will leave more troops there than were present at the start of his adminis...
	The Treasury Department's junk chart - Brendan Nyhan TrackBack URL for this entry:http://www.typepad.com/s ervices/trackback/6a00d83451d2 5c69e200d83460e19169e2 Listed below are links to weblogs that reference The Treasury Department's junk chart: "...
	Jun 25, 2011 at 2:24 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan I remember when liberals opposed this kind of rhetoric RT @elliottjustin Pretty awful stuff from Hillary Clinton http://t.co/S6PuxNm
	Glenn Greenwald: Plurality of Americans love Gadaffi Hillary Clinton, yesterday, when asked about those questioning the Libya War: But the bottom line is, whose side are you on? Are you on Qadhafi's side or are you on the side of the aspirations o...
	Jun 24, 2011 at 3:57 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @kwcollins: Key takeaway: social science would be easier if the government assigned more policies by random draw of birth dates: http://t.co/egY8hZl
	The Lasting Effects of the Vietnam Draft Lottery — The Monkey Cage From a new piece (gated; ungated) by Robert Erikson and Laura Stoker. Previous research, such as by Joshua Angrist, has looked at the economic consequences of military service in Vietnam, using ...
	Jun 23, 2011 at 12:37 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jay_ulfelder: Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging http://t.co/HGdp6ME | Useful new paper by Montgomery, Hollenbach & Ward.
	http://www.duke.edu/web/method s/pdfs/EBMASingleSpaced.pdf
	Jun 22, 2011 at 7:43 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @dandrezner: @jay_ulfelder on using regressions to forecast political instability, and what this means for China http://t.co/Jv8jf5N
	Crystal Clear - By Jay Ulfelder In "Dark Crystal" (July/August 2011), Foreign Policy managing editor Blake Hounshell discusses social scientists' apparent failure to predict the momentous revolutions of 2011 and concludes that...
	Jun 22, 2011 at 6:44 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan PBS Need to Know: Why you can’t handle the truth: the psychology of belief http://j.mp/kOYHdo (featuring @ChrisMooney_)
	Video: Why you can’t handle the truth: the psychology of belief | Need to Know The political sharks and their remora-like pundits are already circling in anticipation of next year's elections. Some observers complain that modern campaign speeches, advertising and debates h...
	Jun 22, 2011 at 3:28 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan A graduate of my high school! RT @ezraklein: Everyone saying this story by @joseiswriting is amazing is right: http://t.co/TE1uGGX
	My Life as an Undocumented Immigrant - NYTimes.com A reporter talks about his illegal American dream.
	Jun 22, 2011 at 3:27 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Bonica: "small donors tend to be ideological warriors out to reward polarizing rhetoric and to punish bipartisanship" http://j.mp/luCkId
	Heckle and Prosper « Ideological Cartography The Washington Post recently published an article on money blurts which has also been discussed at The Monkey Cage and elsewhere. I've done some research on this topic, so I thought I would recy...
	Jun 22, 2011 at 1:33 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@mikeallen quotes @KevinMaddenDC "It's OK to stop reading an article [when] the words 'a professor of poli sci' appear" http://j.mp/k6tePm
	POLITICO Playbook ELEVATOR POINT: The more Bachmann is attacked, the more it helps her. BULLETIN: THE HAGUE, Netherlands (AP) - International Criminal Court judges issue arrest warrant for Moammar Gadhafi.
	Jun 22, 2011 at 11:48 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan I take that as a sign that we're making progress, but let me propose instead the law of Madden:
	Jun 22, 2011 at 11:51 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan It's ok to stop reading any article that quotes consultants speculating about how tactics or gaffes will change election outcomes.
	Jun 22, 2011 at 11:53 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Or how about this? The Law of Politico: If they think it's important, it's probably not. (inspired by @poliscipunk)
	Jun 22, 2011 at 12:17 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Talk about feeding the narrative RT @billburton716 Romney only able to find $100 bills in his wallet http://t.co/oIrcFwy (via @jamisonfoser)
	Romney sharpens attack on Dodd-Frank financial regulations AURORA, Colo. - As he tries to persuade Republicans that he can jump-start the nation's beleaguered job market, Mitt Romney is sharpening his attack on last year's overhaul of financial industry...
	Jun 21, 2011 at 7:01 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Although he did find a five eventually RT @billburton716 Romney only able to find $100 bills in his wallet http://t.co/oIrcFwy
	Romney sharpens attack on Dodd-Frank financial regulations AURORA, Colo. - As he tries to persuade Republicans that he can jump-start the nation's beleaguered job market, Mitt Romney is sharpening his attack on last year's overhaul of financial industry...
	Jun 21, 2011 at 7:19 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @bradplumer Great piece on why InTrade doesn't work very well for predicting the GOP primary: http://t.co/8r2Hl93 (via @postpolls)
	InTrade And Jon Huntsman: Why The Media’s Faith In The Internet Betting Ring Is Foolish | The New Republic Few people expect Jon Huntsman to win the Republican nomination. Indeed, it seems obvious to many that his odds are a lot worse than 1 in 10. But on the predictions market InTrade, a stock-inspi...
	Jun 21, 2011 at 6:52 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan WaPo doesn't call Fast and Furious a scandal yet http://j.mp/kxg97O But CNN, WSJ, Politico, CBS, Fox already have, may be matter of time
	Obama’s nominee for ATF chief to meet with Justice Department officials President Obama's nominee to head the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is scheduled to meet with senior Justice Department officials Tuesday amid growing pressure on the agenc...
	Jun 21, 2011 at 3:21 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Survey experiment by John Sides finds tax receipt has no effect on attitudes toward taxes, govt. waste, deficit http://j.mp/m12HXG
	The Effects of a Tax Receipt | YouGov US Opinion Center The notion that Americans should get a "tax receipt" has gotten a lot of attention. Third Way has promoted the idea and developed an on-line calculator that actually provides one. The White Hous...
	Jun 21, 2011 at 2:48 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Hibbs: Income growth needs to be +2% per year over last seven quarters for Obama to have good chance of re-election http://j.mp/iIja1D
	http://www.douglas-hibbs.com/E lection2012/2012Election-MainP age.htm The 2012 US Presidential Election: Implications of the Bread and Peace Model Aggregate votes for president in postwar elections are well explained by just two fundamental determinants: (1) weigh...
	Jun 21, 2011 at 11:49 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Current Hibbs forecast is Obama 46% due to weighted-average growth of per capita real disposable personal income of 0.1% http://t.co/ytA8YIJ
	http://t.co/ytA8YIJ The 2012 US Presidential Election: Implications of the Bread and Peace Model Aggregate votes for president in postwar elections are well explained by just two fundamental determinants: (1) weigh...
	Jun 21, 2011 at 12:00 PM

Will Americans blame Bush for the economy in 2012?

Matthew Yglesias takes heart in polling showing many Americans still blame President Bush for the state of the economy:

One gripe I hear fairly often around DC is the idea that President Obama has failed to do an adequate job of reminding the public about the disastrous legacy of the George W Bush administration. The latest NBC/WSJ poll showing resilience of Obama's political standing in the face of a bleak national mood suggests that this isn't really the case and the public still puts lots of blame on Bush:

A third reason is that the American public isn't blaming Obama for the current economy, with more than six in 10 respondents still saying he inherited the country's economic problems from his Oval Office predecessor. Also, while a combined 47 percent believe George W. Bush and his administration are "solely responsible" or "mainly responsible" for the current economy, just 34 percent in the poll say the same of Obama and his administration

I wouldn't put much stock in this. Campaigns are giant engines of political accountability that drive election results toward what we would expect given the fundamentals. For better or worse, Obama will own the economy by next fall, though it's possible that he will be judged less harshly since Democrats just took back control of the presidency in 2009.

Twitter roundup

From my Twitter feed (6/14-6/20) Brendan Nyhan Jun 20, 2011 at 11:45 AM
Powered by Keepstream
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Cool new dynamic forecasting model for state-level presidential election outcomes from Emory's Drew Linzer http://t.co/FmieQ1Q (PDF)
	http://userwww.service.emory.e du/~dlinzer/Linzer-prestracker .pdf
	Jun 20, 2011 at 4:18 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Remember '08 was uniform swing, not much state variation MT @TheFix State unemployment #'s should make Obama feel better http://t.co/x1QvmIN
	For Obama in 2012, closer look at state unemployment numbers shows silver lining The national unemployment rate - 9.1 percent in May - paints a grim political picture for President Obama as he turns his attention to the 2012 race. But dig slightly further into the numbers an...
	Jun 20, 2011 at 3:27 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Bad news for Romney/Huntsman - 20-35% wouldn't vote for Mormon. Release: http://j.mp/l2yvLc Article (gated): http://j.mp/mTe7Se
	Religious bias still hurdle for presidential candidates, study shows | Research News @ Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt University by Ann Marie Deer Owens | Posted on Thursday, Jun. 2, 2011 - 12:39 PM A significant number of American voters remain biased against Mormons and other religious minorities, thereby raising the hu...
	ScienceDirect - Electoral Studies : Two Steps Forward, One Step Back? Bias in 2008 Presidential Election Brett V. Bensona, , Jennifer L. Merollaa, and John G. Geer, a, a Vanderbilt University United States The candidates running during the 2008 presidential campaign were the most diverse in America...
	Jun 20, 2011 at 2:51 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@jamesfallows busts journalists quoting from press releases -- people should check for this more often http://j.mp/l5X65v
	The Glamorous Life of a Journalist (WashTimes / FT / Weiner Dept) - James Fallows - National - The Atlantic Sign up to receive our three free newsletters Everyone from President Obama to Ted Koppel is bemoaning a decline in journalistic substance,… To environmentalists, "clean coal" is an insulting ox...
	Jun 20, 2011 at 2:30 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan John Sides of @monkeycageblog and @jbplainblog on the myth of gubernatorial coattails http://j.mp/mfajFU http://j.mp/iOE6FP
	Gubernatorial Coattails — The Monkey Cage The first statement, regarding presidential elections, is wrong-if we interpret "advantage" to mean "presidential candidates get a statistically significant boost in states where their party con...
	A plain blog about politics: Governors as Assets in Presidential Elections John Sides has a good item today on the weak statistical basis for assertions that presidential candidates are helped by same-party governors in swing states. This is one of those chestnuts of A...
	Jun 20, 2011 at 12:39 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@forecasterenten responds to @fivethirtyeight on the performance of the Hibbs presidential elections model http://j.mp/lKhWNC
	Margin of Error: The Hibbs Model DOES Work at Predicting and Explaining Elections Presidential elections are all about the economy, or are they? Those who have followed my writing know that, at least at this point in the election cycle (far away from the actual 2012 general e...
	Jun 20, 2011 at 12:36 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Vast debate overreaction, no? MT @fivethirtyeight: Intrade bettors give Perry (21%) twice the chance of Pawlenty (11%). http://t.co/BQSSahS
	Intrade - Markets Last prediction was: $6.02 / share Today's Change: $0.00 (0.0%) 60.2% CHANCE Event: 2012 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) (Open to Suggestions)
	Jun 19, 2011 at 9:17 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Isn't 2016 Politico's beat? MT @nickconfessore: AP on the 2016 political bet Cuomo makes by pushing gay marriage http://bit.ly/mtBAds
	NY Gov. Cuomo the new face of gay marriage rights | The Associated Press | Politics | San Francisco Examiner Gov. Andrew Cuomo has become a prominent champion of legalized gay marriage, pushing his state into the center of the national debate over an emotional and divisive issue. In the past week, the ...
	Jun 19, 2011 at 9:15 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Converse of what some said about Bush MT @conor64: 1st reader's argument is a perfect example of partisan mind's perils http://bit.ly/jKi7Rr
	The Case for Stiff-Arming Congress on Libya - James Fallows - Politics - The Atlantic James Fallows - James Fallows is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and has written for the magazine since the late 1970s. He has reported extensively from outside the United States, and ...
	Jun 18, 2011 at 3:20 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Mark Penn on how Obama could lose http://j.mp/l2i0R3 Lots of lame punditry, repeats false Bush 41 scanner myth - see http://j.mp/j3wAjk
	Mark Penn on How Barack Obama Could Lose the 2012 Presidential Election: Politics: GQ If there's anyone who knows that nothing is a slam dunk in politics, it's Mark Penn. (Remember President Hillary Clinton?) The chief adviser to Hillary and Bill understands a thing or two about ...
	snopes.com: President Bush and the Grocery Scanner Today, for instance, [Bush] emerged from 11 years in Washington's choicest executive mansions to confront the modern supermarket. Visiting the exhibition hall of the National Grocers Association...
	Jun 16, 2011 at 1:35 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@conor64 fears Romney would have to pick extreme VP, hurting GOP http://j.mp/j2b25C Possible but VPs rarely matter (Palin is the exception)
	The Conservative Temptation to Go Rogue - Conor Friedersdorf - Politics - The Atlantic Why a moderate Republican nominee may inspire an especially immoderate campaign season
	Jun 16, 2011 at 1:15 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@smotus carefully recasts the unemployment/pres. elections relationship - useful for journos on what we do/don't know http://j.mp/kYrOVt
	Enik Rising: More on unemployment and presidential elections
	Jun 16, 2011 at 1:09 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan More from @jbplainblog on how the political climate creates charisma: http://bit.ly/ivlLOB My original post: http://j.mp/jlBu8I
	A plain blog about politics: The Winner Will Have Charisma TAPPED blogger Sarah Laskow believes that Mitt Romney's "lack of charisma on the trail could very well cost him whatever chance he has at winning the Republican nomination and the presidency" Wh...
	How the political climate creates charisma - Brendan Nyhan Josh Marshall makes explicit something that most observers fail to realize -- their judgments of candidates are shaped by political circumstance: The third is just how weak this field really is ...
	Jun 16, 2011 at 12:56 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @davidfrum: Conservative media's pay to play: why it matters http://bit.ly/jS2cLW
	Conservative Media’s Pay-To-Play Deals | FrumForum Why are conservatives so ready to accept behaviors in their own media that they themselves would damn as outrageous if they occurred in non-conservative media? This is an issue I address in my l...
	Jun 15, 2011 at 11:38 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @kwcollins State legislators say the darndest things, constituent-contact edition: http://t.co/ScfyA5s
	Rep. Sends Constituent Semi-Literate Email Comparing Unions to Hitler Max Read -It's always nice to hear about politicians who respond to their constituents personally. Even if those responses are barely coherent expressions of resentment and ignorance! Last year,...
	Jun 15, 2011 at 3:10 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@kdrum on the stubborn myth that Obama wants to revive the Fairness Doctrine, which even his FCC chair opposes http://j.mp/l5pw8O
	Killing the Fairness Doctrine. Again | Mother Jones Like what you're reading? Get the best of MoJo three times a week. The Federal Communications Commission plans to officially kill the Fairness Doctrine. Rush Limbaugh can finally rest easy. By S...
	Jun 15, 2011 at 2:37 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan TPaw: Tax cuts ‘almost always’ raise revenues http://j.mp/jXX1NW Will anyone ask him why so many Bush economists say no? http://j.mp/czPqya
	Pawlenty: Tax cuts ‘almost always’ raise revenues - Ezra Klein - The Washington Post "As people look back to the historical examples, there's been other chapters where tax cuts have been enacted, and almost always they raise revenues if you just isolate the effect of the tax cuts."
	Bush vs. his economists IV - Brendan Nyhan Via Brad DeLong, here's important news that was ignored by the national press.
	Jun 15, 2011 at 1:53 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Thoughts on how to overcome motivated reasoning in online media design by @wfrick http://j.mp/lyuq9Q http://j.mp/jV3CeM
	The Future of Media Bias - Walter Frick - Technology - The Atlantic Context can affect bias, and on the Web -- if I can riff on Lessig -- code is context. So why not design media that accounts for the user's biases and helps him overcome them? I have a good frie...
	http://j.mp/jV3CeM
	Jun 15, 2011 at 1:27 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan PEJ: Weiner 4th-most covered scandal involving elected rep since '07 - #1 Blago, #2 Spitzer, #3 Craig http://j.mp/l4ANhm (via @grahamdavida)
	Weiner’s Bad Week is the No. 1 Story | Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ) The Lead Teaser: The media were riveted last week by a made-for-headlines scandal involving one of the more combative members of Congress. The U.S. economy, the chaos in the Mideast and the...
	Jun 14, 2011 at 7:06 PM

Thomas Friedman turns lemonade into lemons

Yesterday's Thomas Friedman column featured this clunker of a lede:

While President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have gotten a lot of things right on foreign policy, they've made quite a mess in Israeli-Palestinian relations... Then again, the actors they've had to work with were both lemons...

But you know what they say to do with lemons? Make lemonade.

Given Friedman's fondness for hackneyed clichés, I figured this couldn't have been the first time he deployed the lemons/lemonade frame. But he surpassed even my expectations. As it turns out, lemonade have also been or should be made from lemons in the Soviet Union, Bosnia, Iran, and Iraq:

7/28/91: "The cold war may not have ended with a single Appomattox, but if the conventional arms treaty and the German unification agreement of last November are put together with the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact last month and Mr. Gorbachev's trashing of Marxism-Leninism before the Soviet Communist Party last week, they add up to the diplomatic equivalent of a conditional surrender. Still, from such lemons Mr. Gorbachev has made lemonade."

8/28/96: "Richard Holbrooke, the former Bosnia negotiator. Strengths: Smart. Creative. Energetic. Understands American power and how to wield it. Proved in Bosnia that he can turn lemons into lemonade."

10/13/97 (imagined dialogue from Bill Clinton): "Look, I'm dubious about Khatami's prospects... Still, it's worth a try... So we might as well use this mess with France and the oil companies to test Khatami. Hey, when you've got lemons, make lemonade."

1/31/98: "Option 3 is: When you've got lemons, make lemonade. Approach Russia and France and tell them that the U.S. is ready to lift all economic sanctions on Iraq immediately if the two of them can persuade Saddam to accept a total, and permanent, weapons inspection regime."

3/19/03: "But here we are, going to war [in Iraq], basically alone, in the face of opposition, not so much from 'the Arab Street,' but from 'the World Street.' Everyone wishes it were different, but it's too late -- which is why this column will henceforth focus on how to turn these lemons into lemonade. Our children's future hinges on doing this right, even if we got here wrong."

11/30/03: "But here's why the left needs to get beyond its opposition to the war and start pitching in with its own ideas and moral support to try to make lemons into lemonade in Baghdad."

Who's next? My money is on Afghanistan.

New paper on causal inference in social networks

Hans Noel and I have a forthcoming paper on the difficulties of estimating causal effects in longitudinal social network data that is now available online from Social Networks (gated). Here's the abstract:

The "unfriending" problem: The consequences of homophily in friendship retention for causal estimates of social influence

An increasing number of scholars are using longitudinal social network data to try to obtain estimates of peer or social influence effects. These data may provide additional statistical leverage, but they can introduce new inferential problems. In particular, while the confounding effects of homophily in friendship formation are widely appreciated, homophily in friendship retention may also confound causal estimates of social influence in longitudinal network data. We provide evidence for this claim in a Monte Carlo analysis of the statistical model used by Christakis, Fowler, and their colleagues in numerous articles estimating "contagion" effects in social networks. Our results indicate that homophily in friendship retention induces significant upward bias and decreased coverage levels in the Christakis and Fowler model if there is non-negligible friendship attrition over time.

A freely accessible pre-publication version is here (PDF).

Twitter roundup

From my Twitter feed (6/1-6/14) Brendan Nyhan Jun 14, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Powered by Keepstream
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Possible first Obama scandal - "Lawmakers press feds for documents on cartel gun sales" http://j.mp/m5A3A2 Hearing Wed.: http://j.mp/lWbFTX
	Lawmakers press feds for documents on cartel gun sales | Chronicle | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle WASHINGTON - House and Senate lawmakers are threatening to block presidential nominees and subpoena Justice Department officials this week to force the release of documents on a controversial gu...
	6-15-11 'Operation Fast and Furious: Reckless Decisions, Tragic Outcomes' The Honorable Charles E.
	Jun 14, 2011 at 2:24 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Adam Bonica and @kwcollins estimate the conservatism of the 2012 GOP presidential contenders using their donors http://j.mp/jjjhKQ
	Measuring up the Republican Field « Ideological Cartography What will the field of candidates for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination look like? Presidential primaries tend to highlight divisions within parties, and the press has focused on moder...
	Jun 14, 2011 at 2:13 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Context for TPaw hysteria -- David Shuster, MSNBC, 10/29/07: "in debate after debate, Obama has refused to challenge Clinton..." It's early!
	Jun 14, 2011 at 2:08 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@davidfrum writes off TPaw based on debate http://bit.ly/m3xg2p but as @jbplainblog notes, Obama had bad early debates http://bit.ly/mkHe6O
	Pawlenty Is Debate’s Biggest Loser | FrumForum Tim Pawlenty was debate night's big loser. He walked onto that stage with one mission: to prove himself the ultra-base alternative to Romney. He failed, miserably. Pawlenty's failure is not the ...
	A plain blog about politics: Notes on the GOP Debate No big headline, just some various notes on the big GOP debate last night... 1. Yeah, I'm still very much a Michele Bachmann skeptic. Yes, she got good reviews last night. Also, Herman Cain got ...
	Jun 14, 2011 at 12:45 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @MysteryPollster: Looking at all the charts on the rise & fall in Obama's ratings since bin Laden http://t.co/pMZI5p7
	Obama's Bin Laden Polling Bump Fades WASHINGTON -- A batch of new national polls released this week share a similar theme: All show a fade of the modest "bounce" in President Barack Obama's approval ratings that occurred just after...
	Jun 10, 2011 at 5:37 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan What's more embarrassing - Gary Johnson debating an Obama impersonator, or John Stossel hosting it? Hilarious and bizarre http://j.mp/jpo57A
	http://j.mp/jpo57A
	Jun 10, 2011 at 5:34 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan PS Though the Stossel/Johnson debate was a farce, the Obama impersonator is great - SNL or Daily Show should hire him http://t.co/si6kGy2
	Another Episode Of Stossel , Another Ridiculous Stunt | Media Matters for America June 10, 2011 1:14 am ET by Todd Gregory Thursday night on Fox Business, John Stossel used about seven minutes of his show to host a "debate" between former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson and an a...
	Jun 11, 2011 at 12:37 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan How politicians exploit the public's lack of understanding of causality - an example from @therriaultphd http://j.mp/j6Equ5
	Quick Observation on Campaign Websites : Andrew Therriault I've been at the Library of Congress for two days now, capturing a selection of archived campaign websites that are only available on-site (because of legal reasons) for a dataset I'm putting to...
	Jun 10, 2011 at 12:44 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @cdsamii: Nice post w/ admirably careful discussion. RT @jay_ulfelder: Forecasting Popular Uprisings in 2011: How Are We Doing? http://wp.me/p1domH-2x
	Forecasting Popular Uprisings in 2011: How Are We Doing? « Dart-Throwing Chimp Earlier this year, I participated in a workshop at the Council on Foreign Relations on predicting political instability. Not surprisingly, the decision to hold the workshop was partially inspire...
	Jun 9, 2011 at 8:31 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Memo to NYT RT @smotus: Unemployment does not predict presidential elections. Income growth does. http://t.co/lqdxC3u
	Enik Rising: Unemployment and presidential elections Binyamin Appelbaum , in today's New York Times : No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 perce...
	Jun 2, 2011 at 6:07 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Time ed: "unemployment, rather than GDP growth, seems to be what elects and defeats Presidents" http://j.mp/lDKSUN No: http://j.mp/kIRynY
	POLITICO Playbook FIRST LOOK -- IT'S DUSK IN AMERICA: On morning of his first debate, Mitt Romney launches new web video, "Bump in the Road," portraying the U.S.
	Enik Rising: Unemployment and presidential elections Binyamin Appelbaum , in today's New York Times : No American president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term in office when the unemployment rate on Election Day topped 7.2 perce...
	Jun 9, 2011 at 1:50 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan More on unemployment/pres. elections MT @carlislerainey We see a strong pattern when we'd expect - incumbent running. http://bit.ly/jcrFtU
	http://myweb.fsu.edu/rcr08/Fil es/unemployment.png
	Jun 9, 2011 at 4:54 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan More on unemployment effect on pres. elections from @carlislerainey http://t.co/nFzzZPa Not sig. correlated, but lots of uncertainty
	Unemployment, Presidential Elections, and Small Data Sets: 38 Plots for 16 Data Points « Bootstrapping Life A recent debate has emerged on Twitter, in the blogs, and in the New York Times. On June 1, 2011, the New York Times published an article that paints a grim picture of President Obama's reelecti...
	Jun 14, 2011 at 12:38 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Important @smotus response to @fivethirtyeight on econ. forecasting of pres. elections - Depression/WWII really are diff. http://j.mp/lIjRI4
	Enik Rising: Defending economic forecast models I wanted to elaborate a bit on my reaction to Nate Silver's recent post  on the limits of economic forecasts of elections. Silver's post is a good one. He explains one of the better forecas...
	Jun 8, 2011 at 12:08 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Needed: Epistemological modesty from fact-checkers on whether GOP wants to "end Medicare" http://j.mp/lrIbXW See also http://j.mp/l2aHl9
	A Medicare By Any Other Name | The New Republic Paul Krugman wades into the debate over whether Republicans did indeed vote to end Medicare: I mostly, but not entirely, agree. There's a continuum here among potential changes to the program. A...
	Medicare and the Philosophy of Language Paul Krugman on whether or not House Republicans voted to end Medicare: I’ll just quote the blogger Duncan Black, who summarizes this as saying that “when we replace the Marines with a pizza, we...
	Jun 7, 2011 at 2:17 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan I hate analyses of the Obama "brand" like this: http://j.mp/lFMH6f His problem isn't his brand, it's a weak economy + 3 wars.
	Obama seeks reshaped image for 2012 run - USATODAY.com WASHINGTON -The Obama Brand in 2008 was pretty simple: Hope and change. The jobless rate on Friday ticked above 9% again. The housing market nationwide continues to fall. Gas prices are strainin...
	Jun 7, 2011 at 1:47 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @kwcollins: Adam Bonica on "The Changing Politics of Health Care Professionals" as seen in campaign contr. patterns: http://bit.ly/jvs6aW
	The Changing Politics of Health Care Professionals « Ideological Cartography The New York Times published a fascinating article last week about the changing politics of physicians. The article reports that as more physicians abandon practices for salaried positions their...
	Jun 7, 2011 at 12:02 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Republican insiders predicting Romney and Pawlenty for GOP nom - major gap with rest of field http://j.mp/jnCbrb
	Anzalone Research's Twitter Latest National Journal Insider's poll on who will capture the Republican nomination for President: http://bit.ly/mvdKQp
	Jun 6, 2011 at 2:01 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Useful myth-busting about Canadian health care system by @aaronecarroll of @incidentalecon http://j.mp/mGOer9
	In defense of Canada | The Incidental Economist Paul Krugman has been on a tear the last few days with a number of posts defending Canada's Medicare. This was all leading up to his latest column, where he questioned why Medicare should be uns...
	Jun 6, 2011 at 1:36 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jmartpolitico: Great chart on most polarizing govs in Amer: http://bit.ly/l11S97
	Loved by Republicans, loathed by Democrats, Scott Walker remains in a political class by himself - JSOnline In a Wisconsin poll taken two weeks ago, Gov. Walker's approval rating among Republican voters was 87%. His approval rating among Democratic voters was 9%. Those aren't normal numbers, even in p...
	Jun 6, 2011 at 12:01 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan But she has to play in invisible primary RT @MysteryPollster Palin's negatives, alone, not a barrier to GOP nomination http://huff.to/jP9FxI
	Sarah Palin's Poll Numbers Down, But Path To GOP Nomination Not Out WASHINGTON -- As Sarah Palin's unusual "One Nation" bus tour winds its way through the Northeast, Republican insiders seem convinced that the former Alaska Governor will not run for president. B...
	Jun 2, 2011 at 12:44 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@forecasterenten on "Troubling Economic Signs for Obama's Re-Election" - ominous downward revisions in income growth http://j.mp/jaXQaB
	Margin of Error: Troubling Economic Signs for Obama's Re-Election President Obama is currently flying high. Off the killing of Osama Bin Laden, Obama's approvals have risen into the low to mid 50's, and he leads all the major Republican challengers in the 2012...
	Jun 2, 2011 at 11:34 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @ryanchittum: Zombie Lie Laboratory Creates 62 Percent Tax Rate Plan: The WSJ editorial page at work. http://bit.ly/iUEYBp
	Zombie Lie Laboratory Creates 62 Percent Tax Rate Plan : CJR The Wall Street Journal editorial page at work Stephen Moore of The Wall Street Journal editorial board hacks out an instant classic on how to mislead people with numbers. The question-as-headli...
	Jun 1, 2011 at 1:01 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@jbplainblog on "Top-Down, Bottom-Up & Party Networks" http://j.mp/m73ntW Related: my paper on consultant networks http://j.mp/adIlWc (PDF)
	A plain blog about politics: Top-Down, Bottom-Up, and Party Networks For those who read my response to Nate Silver's comments on Herman Cain , I definitely recommend reading Silver's follow-up , with a response to me and others. Silver makes several excellent poi...
	http://j.mp/adIlWc
	Jun 1, 2011 at 11:54 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Is anyone going to track the effect of the California prison overcrowding decision? A proposal for replication http://j.mp/l6tau1
	Misc Links « Code and Culture Entry filed under: Uncategorized. Tags: causality, diffusion, economics, R.
	Jun 1, 2011 at 11:51 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan .@davidfrum: "Hospitals: The New Teachers’ Unions?" HC shifting from inputs to outputs like in educ; changes the politics http://j.mp/lK8fDI
	Hospitals: The New Teachers’ Unions? | FrumForum Are hospitals the new public-school teachers' unions? From the New York Times today: More generally, [hospitals] are apprehensive about Medicare's plans to reward and penalize hospitals based on...
	May 31, 2011 at 1:48 PM

Does legislative gridlock cause scandal?

On Tuesday, the blogger Nicholas Beaudrot suggested that the lack of legislative productivity in Congress was an underlying cause of the frenzy over Rep. Anthony Weiner's online behavior:

A conversation with a friend of mine helped me put a finger on just why it is that DC news coverage has felt like it's had zero redeeming social value of late. The basic problem of the current situation is that nothing is getting done, and nothing probably will get done, until at least the next election, if not longer. But reporters still have to fill the same number of column inches, and the same amount of air time, as they did when the much more energetic 111th Congress was actually trying to pass bills. So we spend about a week talking about the sexting habits of a New York Congressman who's not in the Democratic leadership, just to have something to talk about.

As a student of scandal, this struck me as a claim we can assess empirically. One of the most widely accepted measures of legislative productivity is David Mayhew's data on important laws passed by Congress, which he uses in his book Divided We Govern (See all U.S. Politics Books). We can compare the number of laws passed in each congress with the number of ethics investigations conducted by the House Committee on Ethics, which is one measure of the attention given to Congressional misbehavior. It's not ideal -- some Congressional scandals are never investigated, and some investigations are not widely publicized -- but it's the broadest publicly available measure of highly salient Congressional misbehavior.

When we examine the relationship between the two variables, we see no clear pattern. With the exception of the 104th Congress of 1995-1996, which was a massive outlier in terms of the number of ethics investigations, there is no relationship between Congressional ethics investigations and the passage of important laws.*

There's not a positive bivariate association between presidential scandal and the passage of important laws either. Here, for instance, is a plot comparing the passage of important laws and the volume of front-page scandal coverage in the Washington Post that I use in my article on presidential scandal (PDF):

As Jonathan Bernstein wrote, I think a better way to think about scandal coverage is that it's competing with all the other available stories, not just insider political news. And in that sense, Weiner was unlucky. My article (PDF) finds that congestion of the news agenda has a powerful effect on presidential scandal onset and intensity. Similarly, Weiner's scandal hit during what seemed to be a slow news week, which helped drive the saturation coverage he received.

* The linear fit excludes the 104th Congress since it is an outlier.