Matthew Yglesias takes heart in polling showing many Americans still blame President Bush for the state of the economy:
One gripe I hear fairly often around DC is the idea that President Obama has failed to do an adequate job of reminding the public about the disastrous legacy of the George W Bush administration. The latest NBC/WSJ poll showing resilience of Obama's political standing in the face of a bleak national mood suggests that this isn't really the case and the public still puts lots of blame on Bush:
A third reason is that the American public isn't blaming Obama for the current economy, with more than six in 10 respondents still saying he inherited the country's economic problems from his Oval Office predecessor. Also, while a combined 47 percent believe George W. Bush and his administration are "solely responsible" or "mainly responsible" for the current economy, just 34 percent in the poll say the same of Obama and his administration
I wouldn't put much stock in this. Campaigns are giant engines of political accountability that drive election results toward what we would expect given the fundamentals. For better or worse, Obama will own the economy by next fall, though it's possible that he will be judged less harshly since Democrats just took back control of the presidency in 2009.
I did a family visit back East last week. One Democratic cousin blamed Republicans for the Bush tax cuts, which produced income tax rates that are too low in his opinion. I pointed out that Obama, not Bush, signed the current tax law. He responded that the Republicans "forced" Obama to do so.
Another cousin, a retired HUD attorney, said he hates all politicians because of their lack of true concern for good policy. He said Obama was unqualified and did a poor job as President, but he expects to vote for Obama anyhow.
Based on this tiny and biased sample, Obama may escape blame for the economy.
Posted by: David in Cal | June 22, 2011 at 12:30 PM
IMHO media bias is the main reason Obama may is less blamed for the economy than Bush. Those who don't read conservative media are probably unaware that:
1. Obama's deficits are enormous -- around 4 times as large as Bush's
2. Obama said his stimulus would keep unemployment below 8%, but it would go to 9% otherwise. As we know, after Obama's stimulus, unemployment actually rose to nearly 10%.
3. Obama's stimulus was poorly designed, even for those who approve of stimulus as a policy. There were no "shovel-ready" projects. Much of the largesse went to governments, rather than job-creating businesses.
4. Obama's huge deficits and printing of money to cover them are likely to lead to high inflation.
5. Obama has done numerous favors for labor unions and supportive businesses: E.g.,
-- the NLRB's illegal attempt to force Boeing to close a billion-dollar plant in South Carolina,
-- giving Obamacare waivers to preferred unions and friendly corporations,
-- giving the auto union part ownership of bailed auto companies, rather than the sesior bond-holders.
These favors have discouraged other businesses from growing or expanding, for fear that they'll be treated unfairly by the Obama Administration.
6. Obama has encouraged the promulgation of new regulations, which also discourage business expansion or hiring.
In short, actions by Obama have contribured mightily to the lousy economy, but the media aren't reporting it that way.
Posted by: David in Cal | June 22, 2011 at 05:29 PM
Brendan,
You mention - "Democrats just took back control of the presidency in 2009."
While true, it is worth noting the Democrats controlled congress 2006-2010. If the GOP is able to message this properly (however unlikely!), coming off the D-negative 2010 election, it strikes me this could also impact 2012.
Is there any evidence to examine on this possibility?
Posted by: MartyB | June 22, 2011 at 08:03 PM