Twitter roundup

Twitter roundup (6/27-7/5) Brendan Nyhan Jul 5, 2011 at 1:46 PM
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	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Interesting - @JonahNRO endorses my post on the myth of Reagan as Great Communicator in USAT: http://j.mp/kwRaym My post: http://j.mp/aEgaFe
	Column: Obama's Reagan parallels are falling away - USATODAY.com 5.1, 9.3, 8.1, 8.5, 8, 7.1 and 3.9. While that might sound like a controversial series of Olympic curling scores, these numbers in fact add up to a grave problem for Barack Obama. They are the q...
	Obama and the Reagan myth revisited - Brendan Nyhan As I've repeatedly noted, journalists have a tendency to attribute electoral outcomes and poll ratings to political tactics rather than the underlying fundamentals (most notably, the state of th...
	Jul 5, 2011 at 1:36 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan For more debunking of unsupported claims re: Reagan's effect on public opinion, see http://j.mp/aFHzmJ http://j.mp/jyZy9n http://j.mp/enVOrS
	Judis vs. Judis on presidents and the economy - Brendan Nyhan Back in January, I predicted the birth of a thousand "Why Obama is failing" narratives: It's time to lay down a marker on punditry about the Obama White House. During the next eleven months, it ...
	Obama should beware Reagan myths - Brendan Nyhan With all of the coverage of President Obama's staffing changes, it's worth noting that he's also been reading and soliciting outside advice as he prepares for the second half of his term. In par...
	Overstating Reagan's effect on public opinion - Brendan Nyhan Time's cover story on Ronald Reagan's influence on President Obama opens with this anecdote (emphasis added): In May 2010, Barack Obama invited a small group of presidential historians to the Wh...
	Jul 5, 2011 at 1:41 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Socially conscious hiphop -- Redman weighs in on state fireworks policy http://j.mp/lnoEMI
	Bans on Fireworks Lifted to Bring New Tax Revenue - NYTimes.com As elected officials try to cash in on fireworks sales in cities and counties where they have long been banned, consumers will find it easier to buy fireworks.
	Jul 4, 2011 at 12:37 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan She's more concerned about the Fed than Obama! MT @marcfishman lindsay lohan paid to tweet re inflation http://t.co/EBol3lq
	http://futurejournalismproject .org/post/7162879480/lohan-twe ets-monetary-policy
	Jul 2, 2011 at 7:47 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @RyanLizza: Some perspective on GOP fundraising #'s: what Republican prez candidate raised the most money in the second quarter of 2007? Rudy Giuliani.
	Jul 2, 2011 at 12:26 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @AdamSerwer: No such thing as accidental rape http://t.co/oS0hWjL
	http://t.co/oS0hWjL I find this post from my colleague Robert Kuttner, in which he posits this theory of what might have happened in the hotel room of former IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn bizarre: There’s a knock...
	Jul 1, 2011 at 5:07 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan With economy drowning out HCR debate, Kaiser finds belief in death panels down from 40% in 12/10 to 31% now (but 20% DK) http://j.mp/mCb0Xs
	Kaiser Health Tracking Poll -- June 2011 The June Kaiser Health Tracking Poll finds a plurality of Americans (45%) say they would support minor reductions to current levels of Medicare spending, but fewer than one in five (18%) support...
	Jul 1, 2011 at 1:14 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Interview by @craigsilverman w/my co-author Jason Reifler on our research into corrections and the backfire effect @CJR http://j.mp/lD2Alw
	The Backfire Effect Which of these headlines strikes you as the most persuasive: "I am not a Muslim, Obama says." "I am a Christian, Obama says." The first headline is a direct and unequivocal denial of a piece of ...
	Jun 30, 2011 at 8:35 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @JamesFallows: The real dickishness problem, IMHO http://bit.ly/mK0vOw No surprise, it's 'savvy' political analysis, not the gaffes
	The Real Dickishness Problem Sign up to receive our three free newsletters Everyone from President Obama to Ted Koppel is bemoaning a decline in journalistic substance,… To environmentalists, "clean coal" is an insulting ox...
	Jun 30, 2011 at 6:08 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Great example of how triggering event can start a mini-feeding frenzy, but I'm with Chait RT @jonathanchait http://t.co/opgXSLV
	Dickgate (The Other Dickgate) | The New Republic In an appearance on "Morning Joe" today, Mark Halperin called President Obama "a dick," in reference to his press conference appearance. Halperin apologized, but MSNBC has suspended him. The mer...
	Jun 30, 2011 at 3:27 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @pourmecoffee: With Mark Halperin suspended, there will be no one to glibly speculate without facts on when Mark Halperin will return.
	Jun 30, 2011 at 3:28 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Sure it's disrespectful, but suspension is silly MT @RobGeorge POTUS head of state & head of govt. Whoever's in it afforded greater respect
	Jun 30, 2011 at 6:03 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jamisonfoser: Real problem, of course, isn't the coarse language. It's the substance-free theater criticism, which is standard Halperin.
	Jun 30, 2011 at 1:38 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @prowag: Why people believe stupid stuff when confronted with the truth, featuring @BrendanNyhan http://t.co/VejmzGl
	Why Do People Believe Stupid Stuff, Even When They're Confronted With the Truth? | Media The "backfire effect" helps explain how strange, ancient and kooky beliefs resist science, reason and reportage. This story is cross-posted from You Are Not So Smart. The Misconception: When you...
	Jun 30, 2011 at 6:08 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Initial results from deliberative poll on state governance conducted last weekend in California http://j.mp/kkMrou
	Poll finds strong desire for accountability and real solutions What's Next California is the state's first-ever Deliberative Poll, seeking in-depth public opinion on the most pressing governance issues: state-local reform, taxation and fiscal policy, initia...
	Jun 30, 2011 at 1:54 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @drewconway: Excellent commentary on the recent debate about social contagion by Shalizi http://t.co/ArFHNsf
	Knights, Muddy Boots, and Contagion; or, Social Influence Gets Medieval Three papers have appeared recently, critiquing methods which people have been using to try to establish social influence or social contagion: "The Spread of Evidence-Poor Medicine through Flawe...
	Jun 30, 2011 at 12:25 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Tomorrow's BHO obit today from @mattyglesias - lack of stimulus resolve + GOP obstruction -> bad econ. -> political probshttp://j.mp/johs0F
	Obama The Passive David Frum’s proposed critique of Barack Obama: The job has overwhelmed the man. He’s not an alien, he’s not a radical. He’s just not the person the country needs. He’s not tough enough, he’s no...
	Jun 29, 2011 at 2:37 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan The inextricable link between the norm of objectivity and the media's obsession with gaffes http://j.mp/m7w4eL
	Eschaton: The Important Things
	Jun 29, 2011 at 1:54 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @dbernstein: @BrendanNyhan Fair - but also, gaffes are new. Long-held nonsense policy views are not. Journos (understandably) want something new.
	Jun 29, 2011 at 2:29 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jbplainblog: @dbernstein @brendannyhan Gaffes are also often funnier. Gaffe coverage just fits really well with press norms & (understandable) biases.
	Jun 29, 2011 at 2:29 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @johnmcquaid: @dbernstein @BrendanNyhan But a gaffe persists if it becomes part of a "narrative." Nonsense policy views not considered narrative-worthy.
	Jun 29, 2011 at 2:55 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Poor mgmt. of Bachmann's office might be the COS's fault, but shouldn't reporters check? More useful than gaffe patrol. http://j.mp/mhluqI
	Bachmann's Former Chief of Staff: She Isn't Ready Conor Friedersdorf - Conor Friedersdorf is an associate editor at The Atlantic, where he writes about politics and national affairs. He lives in Venice, California, and is the founding editor of...
	Jun 29, 2011 at 1:38 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jbouie: http://cl.ly/828w I wouldn't make too much of this. GOP voters will eventually choose a nominee, and they'll be stoked about him or her.
	Republican Voters Lack Enthusiasm for Presidential Contenders, Poll Shows Republican voters are not satisfied with the candidates running for the Republican nomination and wish they had more choices, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. None of the ca...
	Jun 29, 2011 at 1:31 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @fivethirtyeight: @daveweigel: 1. Jon Hunstman, Mike Bloomberg and Joe Lieberman meet for coffee; 2. ???; 3. Viable third party
	Jun 29, 2011 at 12:21 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jackshafer: A comet falls on #1 and #2 RT @daveweigel: Question from ed of Reuters: What needs to happen to create a moderate third party? #aspenideas
	Jun 29, 2011 at 12:21 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan What's only thing more meaningless than an election year gaffe? A gaffe in June the year before http://wapo.st/jMCGan
	The media’s misguided `gaffe’ obsession - The Plum Line - The Washington Post So what counts as a "gaffe" in the eyes of the press corps? We're getting an excellent lesson in it this week, with the formal rollout of the Michele Bachmann presidential candidacy. Bachmann is...
	Jun 29, 2011 at 12:15 AM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan RT @jamisonfoser: #BrokenSystem RT @daveweigel: You get more heat for flubbing a founder's name than for saying tax cuts always up revenue.
	Jun 28, 2011 at 4:54 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan More from @monkeycageblog on Legislative Theories and the NY Gay Marriage Vote http://j.mp/lsM3rm
	http://j.mp/lsM3rm In response to my earlier post, a political scientist emailed me and said: …the NY events are contrary to theories that a lot of poli sci folks buy into.  Cartel theories of legislatures say tha...
	Jun 28, 2011 at 3:10 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan What would we do w/o Tina Brown? MT @MahaRafiAtal Newsweek fictional story 'What Princess Di's Life Might Look Like Now' http://t.co/RluIvm5
	What Princess Diana's Life Might Look Like Now - Newsweek After Diana's death, nine years after the car crash in the Paris tunnel, I attended a ball at Althorp, her ancestral home in the English county of Northamptonshire. The party was hosted, improba...
	Jun 28, 2011 at 2:41 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan NYT fails to fact-check false Breitbart claim that was debunked by Anderson Cooper and Chuck Todd in July 2010 http://j.mp/kApH7D
	CNN's Cooper detonates Breitbart's NAACP applause falsehood | Media Matters for America Andrew Breitbart has attempted to divert attention from his falsehoods about former USDA official Shirley Sherrod by claiming that her NAACP audience applauded "as she described how she maltreat...
	Jun 28, 2011 at 1:32 PM
	BrendanNyhan Brendan Nyhan Another reason to have a gas tax - being hit by vehicle that is 1000 lbs heavier increases likelihood of dying by 47% http://t.co/yaYGEdr
	Pounds that Kill: The External Costs of Vehicle Weight Heavier vehicles are safer for their own occupants but more hazardous for the occupants of other vehicles. In this paper we estimate the increased probability of fatalities from being hit by a h...
	Jun 27, 2011 at 5:08 PM
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Comments

[David in Cal]

I give no credence to economic predictions from Lindsay Lohan nor from her critic, Annie Lowrey. Lowrey wrote:

It [the idea that the Fed's printing of money will lead to high inflation] is, needless to say, an unconventional position on monetary policy for a Hollywood starlet—or anyone else. [emphasis added]

By using the phrase "needless to say," Lowrey is claiming that her side of the debate is so obvious that an argument need not be made. This debating tactic is often used when one's argument is weak. That's the case here. Lowrey's proof is essentially that the Fed's printing of money hasn't led to high inflation yet. However, this year's inflation rate tells us little about what will happen over the next few years.

Lowrey ignores the fact that from the end of 2010 to the end of May, 2011, the Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 8.7%, as compared with 1.5% for the full year 2010.

This high rate was substantially due to rises in oil and food prices, which may moderate going forward. OTOH, our weak economy has held inflation down. Workers are in no position to demand raises when the unemployment rate exceeds 9%. And, the drop in home prices has been significantly reducing the CPI.

[David in Cal]

It's no wonder that "I am not a Muslim" doesn't convince people. It sounds like the famous Nixon quote, "I am not a crook." That sure didn't work for Nixon. I think most of us took Nixon's quote as a virtual admission that he was a crook.

[David in Cal]

IMHO Adam Serwer's column is worthless. It's not about what Dominique Strauss-Kahn did. It's about somebody's fantasy about what he did.

In fact, Serwer's analysis may be worse than worthless. A reader might overlook the fact that the scenario being discussed didn't actually happen. (Or, more precisely, the fact that there's no reason to believe that this scenario happened.) Thus, a reader's opinion may be improperly impacted by the imaginery scenario.

[David in Cal]

James Fallows is an excellent pundit, but when it comes to Fox News, not so much. Fallows wrote:

I say that notwithstanding the certainty that if some other "mainstream" journalist had said the same about George W. Bush on MSNBC or CNN, the outrage would never have been allowed to ebb on Fox and the Limbaugh show.

Fallows offers no evidence that Fox would behave this way. In fact, MSNBC moderators were sometimes comparably offensive about Bush, and these incidents did not lead to unending outrage on Fox.

P.S. It's amusing that in a column about offensive language Fallows endorses a column by Andrew Sullivan saying that Republicans "put a gun to the head of the US and global economy", that they "abandon[ed] the last shreds of a conservative disposition" and calling Republicans "fanatics".

[David in Cal]

Jonathan Bernstein dings Bachman for saying that failing to raise the debt ceiling would be no big deal. Bernstein quotes someone named Stan Collander who, "reminds us that, regardless of what else happens, promised credit rating downgrades would be devastating..."

A couple of observations

1. Bernstein seems to implicitly assume that failing to raise the debt limit will cause the US to default on its loans and will cause lower debt ratings.

2. Collander can't "remind us" of the impact of not raising the debt ceiling, because nobody really knows what the impact will be. Collander and Bernstein are entitled to predict their opinion of the impact. So is Bachman.

Is it really true that failing to increase the debt limit means defaulting on existing loans? Let's try a thought experiment. Suppose you have been spending 150% of your income for the last 18 months. You make ends meet by continual increased bank borrowing. Now the bank says they will lend you no more money. Do this mean you must default on your existing loans? Of course not. You could cut your spending to be in line with your income.

Similarly, if faced with a debt limit, Congress and the President have the power to cut federal spending down to what's affordable. In fact, I believe President could unilaterally cut some spending by instructing executive departments not to spend the full amount of money authorized by Congress.

[David in Cal]

Yglesias dings Obama for "disappointing policy outcomes out financial regulation or the public option or immigration reform or climate change." That is, Obama hasn't achieved liberal goals on these issues. Other liberals ding Obama for being too much like Bush by continuing the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, continuing harsh questioning policies, etc.

Meanwhile, conservatives ding Obama for being too liberal. E.g., health reform, permanent increase in the level of federal spending, undermining Israel, being too friendly to America's enemies. abusing government powers to benefit labor unions.

Why is Obama simultaneously seen as too liberal and not liberal enough? IMHO two reasons

1. He ran a somewhat undefined campaign of Hope and Change. It worked. It allowed each supporter to imagine that Obama would do things that supporter favored. In the real world, no President could have satisfied all these disparate desires.

2. Obama has taken some notable actions, but they mostly haven't worked that well. Health Reform is widely considered a bad law. The economy got worse after passage of the nearly trillion-dollar stimulus. Obama's new approach to foreign policy hasn't yielded any victories. If Obama could point with pride to the things he did accomplish, I think people like Yglesias would complain less about the things he failed to accomplish.

[David in Cal]

Maybe lighter cars would reduce traffic deaths, but the study cited by Brendan doesn't prove it. The study shows that being hit by a heavier vehicle increases one's chance of death. But, it ignores the fact that driving a heavier vehicle reduces one's chance of death. The unanswered question is which of these two effects is bigger. In other words, would there be fewer deaths if we all drove lighter vehicles than if we all drove heavier vehicles?