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July 22, 2011


Silver is an expert on polls, but he might have given more weight to actual elections. A majority of states elected Republican Governors. Was that despite most of them being conservative or because most of them are conservative? In other words, maybe today's voters are more conservative than they appear on Silver's poll.

E.g, in 2010 moderate ex-Governor Crist was steamrolled by little-known conservative Marco Rubio in the Florida Senate election, 49% to 30%. Granted Crist had the disadvantage of running as an Independent, but still that was a huge blowout.

My guess is that because out-of control government spending is such a big concern, fiscally conservative candidates can get the support of independents and even some liberals.

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