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January 16, 2012


Brendan pointed out earlier the various groups who have an interest in maintaining tension over the primary elections. This headline illustrates his point:

CNN/Time Poll: Race for South Carolina tightening

First of all, this poll shows Romney with a 10 point lead. That big a lead would seem to be unassailable, given that there are only 3 days to go. Second, a technical statistics point: Although the samples are large enough to give a decent point estimate, they're too small to deduce a trend. Third of all, a Rasmussen Poll based on data just as recent and with a sample 50% larger shows Romney with a 14 point lead.

In short, a more realistic headline would say: Polls show Romney has SC victory wrapped up.

Boy, was I wrong! It now looks like Gingrich is likely to win in SC.

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