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February 15, 2013


If Americans perceive Obama as too partisan, he’ll lose a serious share of his personal popularity.” In reality, however, Obama isn’t likely to significantly increase his approvalor significantly reduce it. And even if he did make a major blunder, we wouldn’t know it from the ill-conceived instant polls of speech watchers that tend to shape reporting and punditry in the aftermath of the State of the Union.

Good call on the instant polling, it selects supporters of the president. However, rather than wait for post-SOTU polling to determine if the president’s approval numbers have changed, many social media outlets use scientifically dubious instant polls of people who watched the speech.

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