New NYT: When beliefs and facts collide

From my new Upshot column, which will run tomorrow in Sunday Review:

Do Americans understand the scientific consensus about issues like climate change and evolution?

At least for a substantial portion of the public, it seems like the answer is no...

As a result of surveys like these, scientists and advocates have concluded that many people are not aware of the evidence on these issues and need to be provided with correct information...

[But] when [Yale Law School professor Dan Kahan] instead tested whether respondents knew the theory of evolution, omitting mention of belief, there was virtually no difference between more and less religious people with high scientific familiarity. In other words, religious people knew the science; they just weren’t willing to say that they believed in it.

Comments

[Robert B. Hopler]

Mr. Nyhan:

Are you unaware that the "97 percent of climate scientists believe human activity causes global warming" has been discredited, or do you choose to ignore it? There are many serious climate researchers who question the present hysteria, and who show that the models have failed to predict the cooling of the past 15 or so years. It may be too deep for you, but I'd recommend that you scan Richard Foster Flint's book on Glacial and Pleistocene geology as a primer on climate variation. Also check the recent WSJ item on the "97% Myth."

[David in Cal]

Brendan -- Sadly your column and your source's columns treat the following statements as almost equivalent. (My comments are appended to show the lack of equivalence):

-- The average temperature on Earth has been getting warmer over the past few decades.
(Should say "has gotten warmer" rather than "has been getting warmer", which implies that the earth is warming today. Also omitted is that the earth has been warming for over 200 years. Scientists agree that the warming before 1950 or so was not due to man's activity. Also, the so-far unexplained pause in warming ought to be mentioned, if one wants to be fair to the reader.)

-- There is evidence of global warming.
(How much warming? When? In the past, present or continuing into the future?)

-- Human activities are causing global warming.
(Should say "some global warming". Most scientists do not think that man's activity has caused all of the warming.

Sadly that Pew survey is even worse.

Lots of people claim there's a 97% consensus, without saying what it is that the supposed consensus agrees on.