Brendan Nyhan

New NYT: Presidential approval and the economy

From my new Upshot column:

When will the improving American economy translate into higher approval ratings for President Obama?

It will take time. But if recent trends continue, Mr. Obama’s political standing is likely to strengthen.

New Sunday Review: Unrealistic hopes for presidents

From my new Sunday Review/Upshot column:

When will we give up on the idea of a leader who will magically bring consensus and unity to our politics?

At election time, candidates seduce us with promises to bring America together, but inevitably fall short while in office and end up leaving office with the country more polarized than when they arrived. After blaming them for their failure to unite us, we turn to the next crop of presidential aspirants, and the cycle of hope and disappointment begins all over again.

New study on correcting flu vaccine myths

Jason Reifler and I have a new study in Vaccine on the effect of correcting the myth that the flu vaccine gives you the flu. Here's the abstract:

Seasonal influenza is responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of dollars of medical costs per year in the United States, but influenza vaccination coverage remains substantially below public health targets. One possible obstacle to greater immunization rates is the false belief that it is possible to contract the flu from the flu vaccine. A nationally representative survey experiment was conducted to assess the extent of this flu vaccine misperception. We find that a substantial portion of the public (43%) believes that the flu vaccine can give you the flu. We also evaluate how an intervention designed to address this concern affects belief in the myth, concerns about flu vaccine safety, and future intent to vaccinate. Corrective information adapted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) website significantly reduced belief in the myth that the flu vaccine can give you the flu as well as concerns about its safety. However, the correction also significantly reduced intent to vaccinate among respondents with high levels of concern about vaccine side effects – a response that was not observed among those with low levels of concern. This result, which is consistent with previous research on misperceptions about the MMR vaccine, suggests that correcting myths about vaccines may not be an effective approach to promoting immunization.

This graph illustrates our key finding, which is that corrective information actually decreased intent to vaccinate among people with high levels of concern about vaccine side effects:

For more, please read the article in Vaccine or check out some of the coverage to date:
-Chris Mooney, Washington Post Wonkblog
-Lindsay Abrams, Salon
-Lenny Bernstein, Washington Post
-Kathryn Doyle, Reuters
-David Shultz, Science Magazine
-Teresa Mull, The Week
-Tara Haelle, NPR

New NYT: New approach to sexual assault reporting

From my new Upshot column:

One of the key factors driving the growing scandal surrounding Bill Cosby is shared awareness of the numerous rape allegations against him, which has prompted media companies and his beloved Temple University to distance themselves from him while encouraging new accusers to come forward.

A Rolling Stone article has had a similarly galvanizing effect at the University of Virginia by reporting a pattern of sexual assaults on campus. The attention it drew to the issue prompted Teresa A. Sullivan, the university’s president, to suspend all fraternity activities until January.

Most accounts of sexual assault never reach this level of awareness, however. Few are even reported. One reason is that reporting systems on college campuses and in the criminal justice system are widely regarded as unfriendly to victims. In particular, even though research suggests that many rapists engage in repeated attacks, survivors of sexual assault are rarely aware of other victims or able to come forward together.

Callisto, an online sexual assault reporting system under development by a nonprofit called Sexual Health Innovations, aims to change this and provide better options for victims of sexual assault on college campuses.