Brendan Nyhan

New NYT: The obstacles to a Bloomberg win

From my new Upshot column:

The dream of a centrist third-party presidential candidate will never die.

Michael Bloomberg, the media billionaire and former New York City mayor, is once again considering running for president, but how broad is his appeal?

Although he may wish to portray himself as a centrist alternative to more extreme presidential contenders, Mr. Bloomberg wouldn’t enter the race with a public image that is especially conducive to a third-party run.

New NYT: The downside of Trump touting his polls

From my new Upshot column:

Donald Trump misses no opportunity to remind us that he’s ahead in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. During a rally in Claremont, N.H., last week, he said, “When people say, ‘Why do you always talk about the polls?’ I say, ‘Because I’m winning!’ Believe me, if I’m not winning, I don’t talk about them.”

Many pundits interpret these kind of statements as a reflection of Mr. Trump’s ego, which is not an unreasonable view. He does like talking about himself. But he may also be trying to generate a bandwagon effect, a well-documented phenomenon in political science but one that may leave him vulnerable to future disruptions.

New research on journalistic fact-checking

I have a new article out in the Journal of Communication with Lucas Graves and Jason Reifler on the reasons journalists engage in fact-checking (ungated preprint):

Understanding Innovations in Journalistic Practice: A Field Experiment Examining Motivations for Fact-Checking
Lucas Graves, Brendan Nyhan, and Jason Reifler

Why has fact-checking spread so quickly within U.S. political journalism? In the first field experiment conducted among reporters, we varied journalist exposure to messages that highlight either audience demand for fact-checking or the prestige it enjoys within the profession. Our results indicate that messages promoting the high status and journalistic values of fact-checking increased the prevalence of fact-checking coverage, while messages about audience demand were somewhat less successful. These findings suggest that political fact-checking is driven primarily by professional motives within journalism, a finding that helps us understand the process by which the practice spreads within the press as well as the factors that influence the behavior of journalists.