Brendan Nyhan

  • Bob Somerby the psychiatrist

    One of my biggest problems with modern punditry is the way that commentators repeatedly accuse their opponents of being mentally ill. I’ve been writing about it since this piece on Spinsanity back in 2001. The worst offender is Charles Krauthammer, an actual psychiatrist who repeatedly accuses his opponents of mental illness, but there are many other examples.

    That’s why I’m so annoyed when Bob Somerby, the author of The Daily Howler, constantly makes cavalier accusations of mental illness even as he admits that he shouldn’t:

    Mental illness causes great suffering. Ideally, it shouldn’t be joked about. It shouldn’t be flippantly “diagnosed” as part of our public discourse.

    But when the Times leaves Maureen Dowd in print, it’s hard to avoid such talk.

    Somerby goes on to write that he thought of “mental disorder” and “mental illness” when reading her latest column. But back in 2003, Somerby complained about Krauthammer’s on-camera diagnoses.

    I’ll repeat his words: Mental illness causes great suffering. It shouldn’t be joked about or flippantly “diagnosed” as part of our public discourse.

  • Klein & Gingrich on Democratic unity

    When Ezra Klein and Newt Gingrich agree, watch out!

    Klein wrote the following on his blog yesterday about the threat that Hillary Clinton’s new superdelegate strategy will rip the party apart:

    Put another way: If Hillary Clinton does not win delegates out of a majority of contested primaries and caucuses, her aides are willing to rip the party apart to secure the nomination, to cheat in a way that will rend the Democratic coalition and probably destroy Clinton’s chances in the general election…

    This demonstrates not only a gross ruthlessness on the part of Clinton’s campaign, but an astonishingly cavalier attitude towards the preservation of the progressive coalition.

    Surprisingly, Gingrich also warns of a Democratic meltdown in a WSJ op-ed today:

    So the Democrats are caught in a double-bind: Disenfranchising the voters in Michigan and Florida while allowing party insiders to pick the party’s nominee has all the makings of a Democratic civil war.

    You might think that as a Republican I don’t have a dog in this fight, but I do. All of us do. A tainted or “stolen” Democratic nomination has the potential to delegitimize the election itself and its outcome. And tainted victories produce hobbled administrations. Much as I might have agreed with the outcome of the 2000 general election, the rancor and vitriol it produced created divisions among Americans where none naturally existed before, irreparably damaging the Bush administration.

    Gingrich’s solution: Revote in Florida and Michigan. I don’t think that’s likely, but the threat to unity within the party is real.

  • The McCain “Maverick Myth”

    Paul Waldman has another take on John McCain’s exaggerated “maverick” persona:

    But is John McCain really a maverick? A look beyond the media’s repetition of the word at McCain’s actual record suggests that the answer is no. In fact, McCain is a reliable conservative, and if not a perfectly loyal Republican, at least a reasonably loyal one.

    According to Congressional Quarterly’s party unity scores, which track how often members of Congress side with their party on key votes, over the course of his career McCain has voted with his party 84 percent of the time—not the highest score in the Senate but hardly evidence of a great deal of independence. Similarly, the American Conservative Union gives McCain a lifetime rating of 82.3, making him a solid friend of the right’s. And according to the widely respected Poole-Rosenthal rankings, McCain was the eighth-most conservative senator in the 110th Senate.

    …McCain’s breaks with the GOP are “high profile” precisely because the press is so eager to paint him as a maverick and rewrite a story with which they are well familiar.

    Here’s how it usually works. Imagine that the Democrats and Republicans have a conflict over a piece of legislation, and on both sides, party unity is fairly strong. Only a couple of senators—let’s say Democrat Ben Nelson of Nebraska, and Republican Olympia Snowe of Maine, two centrists—have decided to break with their respective parties and join the other side. Reporters will find the positions taken by these two unremarkable, since Nelson and Snowe have crossed the aisle many times before (their party unity scores are regularly in the 50s, compared to McCain’s 84). The news stories that follow will still describe the story as a clash between the two parties, and Nelson and Snowe will be footnotes at best, bit players in the drama whose actions don’t change the underlying news narrative.

    But if John McCain decides that he will join Snowe and side with the Democrats, the story being written in the media undergoes a dramatic shift. It now becomes not a story about a conflict between the Democrats and the Republicans, but a story about a conflict between John McCain and the Republicans. He instantly becomes the lead actor in the tale, as Democrats fade into the background. His name will be in the headlines, and every article about the topic will include quotes from McCain, reminders of past breaks with his party, a quote from a representative of a conservative interest group attacking McCain, and stirring descriptions of the Arizona senator’s courageous independence, political consequences be damned.

    There is one other key factor to understand in the making of the “maverick” myth. Look at the times when McCain has differed with his Republican colleagues, and what you find is that in almost every case, the position held by most in the GOP was broadly unpopular with the public. Campaign finance reform, regulation of tobacco, even the Bush tax cuts (to which the public was indifferent and which McCain could hardly support, having criticized them as Bush’s opponent in the 2000 presidential race)—in every case, the position McCain took put him on the right side of public opinion. So what the press calls “maverick” stands could just as easily be interpreted as highly political efforts to maintain McCain’s strong popularity with the general public.

    For more, see Matt Welch’s McCain: The Myth of a Maverick (which Waldman annoyingly doesn’t cite even though his article is titled “The Maverick Myth”).

  • WSJ notes “Juan McCain”

    The Wall Street Journal editorial board, which opposes efforts to crack down on immigration, notes the ugly nickname for John McCain that I flagged a couple weeks ago:

    The Arizona Senator will never please the talk-radio and Internet voices who now refer to him as “Juan McCain.” He shouldn’t try. Most Americans agree with him.

  • John McCain: Problem solver

    I love John McCain’s take on how to solve the deadlock in Congress on warrantless wiretaps:

    Senator John McCain of Arizona, the Republican presidential hopeful, weighed in on the debate. When Mr. McCain learned that the House had voted down a 21-day extension and that the powers were likely to lapse at midnight Friday, he said: “That’s too bad. That’s very unfortunate. It’s symptomatic of the gridlock of partisanship here in the Congress.”

    To break the gridlock, Mr. McCain said, “people that are patriotic Americans need to sit down together and work this out.”

    It sounds a bit like his proposed solution to the conflict in Iraq:

    “One of the things I would do if I were President would be to sit the Shiites and the Sunnis down and say, ‘Stop the bullshit,’” said Mr. McCain, according to Shirley Cloyes DioGuardi, an invitee, and two other guests.

  • Penn: Obama hasn’t won “significant” states

    Via Josh Marshall, Mark Penn is spinning again — check out this silly quote:

    “Could we possibly have a nominee who hasn’t won any of the significant states — outside of Illinois?” Chief Strategist Mark Penn said. “That raises some serious questions about Sen. Obama.”

    As I’ve shown, it’s true that Obama has not done as well in larger states, but the claim that he hasn’t won “any of the significant states” is silly.

    What makes a state “significant”? The most obvious metric is how close it was in 2004. And if you sort the states that have voted so far by the competitiveness of the 2004 presidential vote (and exclude Florida and Michigan), you can see that Obama has won six of the ten closest states (Obama votes below are expressed as a proportion of the total Obama+Hillary vote):

    State Kerry Obama
    NH 0.50 0.48
    IA 0.49 0.57
    NM 0.49 0.49
    MN 0.51 0.67
    NV 0.48 0.47
    WA 0.53 0.69
    NJ 0.53 0.45
    CO 0.47 0.68
    DE 0.53 0.56
    ME 0.54 0.60

    However, Penn probably preferes to sort the states by population since that includes California (also, he referred to Illinois in making the statement). If you parse the states that have voted so far that way (again excluding Florida and Michigan), you can see that Obama has won four of the top ten:

    State Obama
    CA 0.45
    NY 0.41
    IL 0.66
    GA 0.68
    NJ 0.45
    VA 0.65
    MA 0.42
    WA 0.69
    AZ 0.45
    TN 0.43

    Of course, with all that said, we should be cautious about extrapolating from the primary to the general election.

    Update 2/17 9:37 AM: TNR’s Noam Scheiber makes a similar point in responding to Clinton supporter Harold Ickes’s claim that Hillary has won important swing states and Obama hasn’t.

  • What is Mark Penn talking about?

    Mark Penn, the pollster who serves as Hillary Clinton’s chief strategist, is a notorious spinner, but does he really expect us to accept the sort of claims he’s making to justify Hillary’s electability?

    In a memo touting Clinton’s electoral strength, Penn claimed that “Hillary Clinton has withstood the full brunt of [the “GOP attack machine”] and actually emerged stronger.” “Stronger”? She has unfavorability ratings in the high 40s and the general election hasn’t even begun.

    Penn was later quoted making the following statement:

    “She has consistently shown an electoral resiliency in difficult situations that have made her a winner,” Mr. Penn said. “Senator Obama has in fact never had a serious Republican challenger.”

    While it’s true that Obama has not had a serious GOP opponent in his state or federal campaigns, Hillary only has had one (Rick Lazio) during her two Senate campaigns. So how could she have “consistently shown an electoral resiliency in difficult situations”? There’s only been one competitive race. I don’t think “consistently” means what Penn thinks it means.

  • Ron Paul’s “NAFTA superhighway” myth

    Factcheck.org debunks one of Ron Paul’s pet conspiracy theories:

    Paul claims that a secret conspiracy composed of the Security and Prosperity Partnership and a cabal of foreign companies is behind plans to build a NAFTA Superhighway as the first step toward creating a North American Union. But the NAFTA Superhighway that Paul describes is a myth, and the groups supposedly behind the plans are neither secret nor nefarious.

    See also the fundraising letter I flagged back in October and Jamie Kirchik’s TNR piece on him for more.

  • The incoherence of John McCain

    For those of you who haven’t yet read Matt Welch’s McCain: The Myth of a Maverick, Jon Chait’s new TNR story on the ideological incoherence of the supposed “straight talker” is well worth a read. (See also Welch’s critique of various endorsements of McCain by newspaper editorial boards.)

  • “Obama Proof Stocks” ad

    This Google ad just showed up in my sidebar:

    Obamaproof_2

    Lovely. I expect we’ll be seeing more of this if Obama takes the Democratic nomination. (To be fair, however, the website for the shady newsletter the ad is promoting actually says “Whether Democrat or Republican – Clinton or Romney – Huckabee or Obama – if you don’t prepare your portfolio, this won’t be a good election year.”)